How much the macro economy has to do with plastics

Enterprises are the basic cells of the economy, and their development cannot escape the great tide of the macro economy. Paying attention to the trends of the macro economy and policy can spy on business opportunities for development. This article combines the views of Mr. Zhang Liqun, a well-known economist and researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, to discuss the business opportunities for the development of plastic enterprises.

After the rapid growth in previous years, in 2015, China's economy entered a new normal of declining and stabilizing, and the policy effect of stabilizing growth is expected to be further manifested in 2016. So, what are the reasons for China's economic growth rate shifting at this stage?

What is the reason for the gear shift?

There are different opinions in the society about the decline of China's economic growth. There are basically several theories: discuss the development of China's economy from the supply conditions of factors, such as the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the aging of the population; the lack of innovation ability is an important reason for the shifting of economic growth. ;In 2015, China's total economic volume was 10.8 trillion US dollars, and an increase of 10% means an annual growth of 1 trillion US dollars, which cannot be maintained; when the per capita GDP exceeds 11,000 US dollars, the economic growth level of many countries and regions will slow down at the same time. The per capita GDP is basically at the level of 1 trillion US dollars. From the perspective of development law, China's economic growth rate will decline. However, Zhang Liqun, a well-known economist and researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said these are not the real reasons for China's economic growth shift.

At the sixth expanded meeting of the Council held by China Plastics Processing Industry Association on the eve of CHINAPLAS 2016, researcher Zhang Liqun was invited to make a detailed analysis and interpretation of the current economic situation. He refuted the above points one by one. Although the supply of factors is indeed very important to economic growth, the three factors of people, money and technology are not in short supply in China at present. According to the survey, in 2015, the working-age population aged 16-59 was 910 million, while 401 million were employed in urban areas, and only 400 million were employed for the 900 million labor force. China has not yet reached the level of economic growth due to insufficient labor supply. block. In terms of technology, the progress of China's development of technology is not slow. Whether it is automotive sheets or mid-to-high-end profiles, Chinese companies can produce them. Therefore, the judgment of insufficient technical supply is also untenable. From the perspective of economic aggregate, in 1990, it was considered that China's economic aggregate was very large, which was a substantial improvement from the initial stage of reform and opening up. At that time, it was said that the growth rate would be slower. As a result, China's economic growth rate in the next 20 years was Not slow. Therefore, the level of China's economic growth is determined by a series of domestic development conditions that determine social productive forces, rather than relatively large or small.

What is the real reason for China's economic slowdown? Market demand!

There is a close relationship between the production of an enterprise and the market demand. There is a simple and direct relationship from the market demand to the number of enterprises started, and then to the growth of GDP. The decline in market demand has directly led to a slowdown in China's economic growth. China's market demand is a troika. There are two domestic carriages, one for consumption and one for investment; one foreign carriage is for export. These troikas are the basic source of demand in the Chinese market.

From 2003 to 2007, the average annual growth rate of China's exports was 29.2%; but from 2008 to 2014, the average annual growth rate of China's exports dropped to 8.57%, a huge drop. There are fewer orders, products are not easy to sell, and the operating rate of foreign trade companies has dropped significantly, and the added value brought by them will definitely drop, which is also reflected in the growth of GDP. There are fewer and fewer external orders, why? Because the United States wants to remanufacture, and the United States uses the advantages of technological innovation to develop the manufacturing industry. In this way, the American manufacturing industry will inevitably protect the market, and China's exports will inevitably be restricted. Trade protection is in Europe. , the United States is generally on the rise, it is becoming more and more difficult to sell Chinese products to Europe, the United States, and Japan, the number of external orders has dropped significantly, and the operating rate of Chinese foreign trade production enterprises has dropped significantly. Market demand is very important and decisive to the operating rate and economic growth.

Domestic market demand is also declining. Where did the decline begin? Starting from cars and housing, statistics show that from 2002 to 2010, China's car sales increased by 24% annually, but from 2011 to 2014, the average annual growth was only 7%, and in 2015, car sales only increased by 4.68% As a result, the procurement activities brought by automobile production will inevitably weaken, and the order level of a large number of enterprises in the automobile industry chain has dropped. In addition, from 2002 to 2009, the sales area of ​​urban commercial housing in China increased by an average of 19.8% annually, and from 2010 to 2014, the average annual growth rate dropped to 3.6%. Steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, plastics are all affected by the real estate adjustment. Energy is also affected by the operating rate of heavy industry and chemical industry.

Relationship 1: Urbanization!

Why has the growth rate of cars and housing in China dropped so much? Urbanization is fundamental.

China's modernization is mainly manifested in industrialization, modernization, agricultural modernization, urbanization, marketization, and internationalization. China is advancing to a modern society along this direction. The problem with urbanization is that it is becoming more and more difficult for people to live and work in cities, and more and more people just come to cities to earn money, rather than to settle in cities, and big cities do not support more people to settle down. The problems in urbanization, in turn, restrict industrialization, and industrialization cannot leave the market. At present, the automobile and housing markets are hampered by the problem of urbanization, the development is not fast, and the development of related heavy and chemical industries cannot get up. Energy, transportation, and equipment manufacturing are deeply affected, and overcapacity is common, so this problem is more serious. It is mainly more profound than the impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy.

Urbanization is the only way to modernize, and it is China's largest domestic demand potential and development momentum. This year, we will focus on three tasks. One is to speed up the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, and the other is to promote the construction of urban affordable housing projects and the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The third is to strengthen the management of urban planning and construction, promote the "integration of multiple plans", and start the construction of urban underground comprehensive pipe corridors of more than 2,000 kilometers.

The government work report proposes that it is necessary to deeply tap the potential of domestic demand and open up more space for development; strengthen the basic role of consumption in driving economic growth; and give play to the key role of effective investment in stabilizing growth and adjusting structure. There are many shortcomings in China's infrastructure and people's livelihood. The industry is in urgent need of transformation and upgrading, and there is still a lot of room for effective investment. This year, a number of major projects in the 13th Five-Year Plan will be launched. Complete the investment of more than 800 billion yuan in railways and 1.65 trillion yuan in highways, start another 20 major water conservancy projects, and build major projects such as hydropower and nuclear power, UHV power transmission, smart grid, oil and gas pipeline network, and urban rail transit. Investment in the central budget increased to 500 billion yuan.

Relationship 2: High-quality orders for supply-side structural reforms will increase

The supply-side structural reform aims to adjust the economic structure, realize the optimal allocation of factors, and improve the quality and quantity of economic growth. The demand side has the troika of investment, consumption and export, and the supply side has four elements: labor, land, capital, and innovation.

Regarding the supply-side structural reform, the government work report emphasizes the need to deepen the reform and do a good job of addition and subtraction. Promote the in-depth development of the reform of streamlining administration and delegating powers, combining decentralization and management, and optimizing services. Fully release the potential of entrepreneurship and innovation in the whole society: First, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation. The second is to give full play to mass entrepreneurship, mass innovation and "Internet

"The multiplier effect of gathering all wisdom and power. The third is to deepen the reform of the scientific and technological management system. Vigorously promote the reform of state-owned enterprises. Better stimulate the vitality of the non-public economy. Focus on resolving excess capacity and reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Improve the quality of consumer goods. Safety standards are in line with international standards, and a punitive compensation system for product quality is established. Enterprises are encouraged to carry out personalized customization and flexible production, cultivate the spirit of craftsmanship for excellence, increase varieties, improve quality, and create brands. Promote the upgrading of manufacturing industries and accelerate the modern service industry developing.

All industries in China must do everything possible to provide high-quality and effective supply, and the plastics industry must also work hard. We cannot only see the current shortage of orders. We must see that after companies and departments have done their homework correctly, high-quality orders will increase. This potential must be estimated.

Zhang Liqun said that everyone must have a correct understanding of China's economy in 2016, that is, through the 12th Five-Year Plan period and more than 4 years of steady growth efforts, the process of shifting the economic growth rate has basically been completed. Now we are standing at medium and high speed. On the platform of growth, we should focus on improving the gold content of development. We must actively adapt to the new economic normal, change the mode, adjust the structure, and improve the relevant system and foundation, so that the development of China's economy can be established at a higher level.

In recent years, the effect of China's policy of ensuring employment has been relatively obvious, and the employment situation has been relatively good. The real estate and auto market corrections are expected to flatten in 2016, and their negative impact on consumption is expected to abate. Based on various information, it is expected that consumption will continue to maintain steady growth in 2016, with an actual growth rate of about 10.5%.